[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 2N30W EQ40W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN AROUND 150 NM
SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/FAR W ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 30N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA BAY AND THEN CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 27N90W 24.5N95W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR
20N96.5...WHERE IT TURNS NORTHWARD OVER MEXICO TO THE STATE OF
CHIHUAHUA. N TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING N OF THE FRONT.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED N AND W OF THE FRONT WHILE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND FAR W
ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR OVER
THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...CONTINUING TO THE S ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ACCORDING TO THE GFS
MODEL...A WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
NEAR 25N96W THEN MOVE N. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALSO COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. FURTHER TO THE E A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A JET
CROSSING ACROSS THE FAR SE PART...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS THE RULE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 24 HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 19N57W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO THE ABC ISLANDS. A JET ALOFT OF 70 KT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 13N62W TO 18N50W TO 20N30W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA FROM A HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES. A
WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N58W TO 22N63W. A LINE OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 31N70W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY E TO W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE
FRONT.

$$
GR


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