[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N25W EQ40W EQ50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO 27N97W AND
CONTINUES INTO N MEXICO ALONG 25N100W 29N107W.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN
86W-92W.  20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE 20 KT
SLY WINDS ARE S OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING
STEADILY TOWARDS THE E GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N.  EXPECT S FLORIDA TO EXPERIENCE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH CONVECTION EARLY SUN MORNING.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BY THEN EXPERIENCE COLD 20-25 KT NLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS COLD FRONT HAS
BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER
GFS FORECASTS THE FRONT TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIVEN WESTWARD BY
15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONVECTION BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 26N54W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS
FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N42W.  A 1007 MB GALE
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N17W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR
20N17W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 10W-30W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-10N
BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA




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