[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 0.5N30W 0.5N40W
0.5N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE AXIS FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER FLORIDA. THIS HIGH WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW. MAINLY S-SSW RETURN SFC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
27N87W TO LOUISIANA. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE NEAR AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NE AND DISSIPATE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND N MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SE TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING NEWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SHOWERS AND A
LINE OF STRONG TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS HOLDING ON S OF 24N E OF 90W.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION CROSSING THE
ENTIRE AREA BY SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE GULF IT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WINDS AND SEAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
AND BRING IN COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA.  THIS COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE IN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER GFS FORECASTS
THE FRONT TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
AND ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N69W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 14N WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS N OF 14N. AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS TO THE N AND
WEAKENS TOMORROW FAIR WEATHER SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR
22N76W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...W OF 60W...AND FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 989 MB LOW NEAR 43N52W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N52W
23N63W 20N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF 25N. AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT LOW
CLOUDS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR LIES W OF THE FRONT TO 70W. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA BETWEEN 20W-50W. AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB STATIONARY HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N38W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA S OF
20N KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W-50W RAIN FREE. IN
THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
32N17W. A SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOW SWARD TO 21N ALONG
17W/18W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SWIRLING WITHIN 400 NM AROUND THE
LOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE W OF LOW CAUSED BY THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRAD BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A 1024 MB HIGH TO THE
NW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO DRIFT SSEWARD AND
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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