[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N14W 2N32W EQ52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF FROM GEORGIA TO
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
1015 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W SW ALONG 26N94W
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N96W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
FIRMLY ARE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF...THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE GULF BY WED.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD HOLD FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING WSW JUST W OF
JAMAICA ALONG 18N80W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 17N-21N FROM 80W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN BY WED AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC AND NE US COVERING
THE ATLC W OF 55W. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING SW TO 27N66W BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N. NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W ENE ALONG 27N49W TO 32N40W.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
32N29W S ALONG 23N27W THEN SW TO A WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 11N42W
TO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 6N56W. THE N UPPER LOW IS MOVING E
WHILE THE S UPPER LOW IS REMAINING NEAR STATIONARY. THE COLD
FRONT IS DISSIPATING ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING S
TO 23N24W WITH A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR 32N29W TO 29N31W THEN NW AS A COLD
FRONT BEYOND 32N37W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA COVERS THE
FAR E ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 140 KT ARE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING
ALONG 10N40W 21N24W TO ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST TO BEYOND 32N11W.
THE JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE
PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 28W TO OVER NW
AFRICA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 15N FROM 40W TO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COLD WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N49W.

$$
WALLACE



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