[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N21W 1N30W 1N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 31W AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS APPROACHING
THE COAST IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A SERIES OF LOWS OVER THE SE US...A 1015 MB LOW
OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W SW ALONG 26N95W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FIRMLY IN PLACED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF IS
LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE
FRONT. CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. THE FRONT AND
ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE GULF BY WED. FAIR
WEATHER SHOULD HOLD FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING WSW JUST W OF
JAMAICA ALONG 18N80W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THE W PORTION
CONTINUES TO MEANDERING TO THE NW. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF
THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 20N. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADES
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN BY WED AS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE US
INTO THE W ATLC HAS BROADENED AND NOW COVERING THE ATLC W OF
55W. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N60W EXTENDING SW TO 24N70W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE S
BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
ATLC W OF 60W...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NARROW
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
17N62W ENE ALONG 26N49W TO 31N38W. UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE
E ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N30W S ALONG 24N30W THEN SW TO A
WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 12N45W TO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 6N55W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING W ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR
32N21W EXTENDING SSW TO 22N25W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT ARE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 10N40W 20N30W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 30N10W.
THE JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE
PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT TO OVER NW AFRICA. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N
FROM 32W-60W WITH A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N49W.

$$
WALLACE


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