[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 3N30W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 7W-12W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 28N96W 28N100W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...E OF FRONT... HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENTRAINING
OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 77W-86W
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 25N
WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. A 110-120 KT WESTERLY JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
FLORIDA.  EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W...WHILE 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES...JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA
TO HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG
65W.  TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
WHERE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO
CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC OCEAN S OF
14N. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W.  SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS WSW TO S FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER FLORIDA HAS MOVED TO THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N AND W OF 78W.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 25N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 34W-37W.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  LIKEWISE...NEARLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF
20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA





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