[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N24W 1N35W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-27W AND BETWEEN 31W-36W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
WITH SW WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. AT 15 Z...ASSOCIATED
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE EXISTS IN THE AREA NEAR 30N94W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING MAINLY WEST ACROSS THE US/MEXICO BORDER. THIS
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...REACHING WESTERN CUBA
SATURDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL INVADE DE
AREA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM 29N82W TO 27N86W. THIS SQUALL
LINE IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. HEAVY TSTMS WERE REPORTED IN
THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWARD FROM
SOUTH MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SE PORTION
OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA. DRIER UPPER AIR EXISTS W OF 90W N OF
23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W...WHILE 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE IS NOW OVER THE W
ATLC...NW OF PUERTO RICO...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 65W.
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SEEN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO CROSSING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC OCEAN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30 N...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. A 1024 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N59 WHILE ANOTHER 1025 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 34N22W. THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N40W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO
24N52W. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 30 N. MOST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RELATED
TO THE FRONT IS FOUND N OF 30 N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM
50W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 45W N OF 27N. NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

$$
GR




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