[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 9W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
NE OUT OF TEXAS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 30N90W SW TO 25N92W
BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N95W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF
COAST NEAR 30N88W TO OVER ALABAMA AND MOVING INTO GEORGIA. DENSE
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE W GULF W OF 90W EXCEPT ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ARE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEAVING THE E
GULF RATHER CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS
S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY
CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
USHERED IN ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL
ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE REGION NEAR
32N35W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N58W. EMBEDDED
BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH IS A LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 72W/73W FROM 26N-31N. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N57W
TO 28N49W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS BUT IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 22N34W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS CAN FORM.

$$
WALLACE



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