[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N27W 2N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-6N E OF 22W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
TEXAS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS E LOUISIANA
ALONG 30N91W SW TO 26N94W THEN S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N96W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45/60 NM
OF LINE FROM 28N90W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N89W
TO OVER W ALABAMA AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI. DENSE CLOUDS COVER
MOST OF THE W GULF W OF 90W EXCEPT NW OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. DRY
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50'S TO UPPER 40'S. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NNE TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEAVING THE E GULF RATHER CLEAR. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW E TREK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS
S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY
CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA USHERED IN ON STRONG
TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL
ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE AREA ALONG 32N46W 30N55W THEN NE OUT THE REGION OVER
BERMUDA. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE E OF THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N45W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS A LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
72W FROM 25N-30N. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N58W TO BEYOND
32N41W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS BUT IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 22N33W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS CAN FORM.

$$
WALLACE




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