[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N9W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W...FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W
AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERS
MEXICO NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 99W...TEXAS WEST OF 98W... AND
NEW MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT MOVES TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
89W/90W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF 20N WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PROMINENT AREAS OF DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO 26N95W TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 21N/22N ALONG 98W. A SEPARATE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N92W 29N91W BEYOND 31N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...MOVING
FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 15N89W TOWARD
VENEZUELA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO A SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER POSSIBLY
NEAR 13N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 24N62W TO 14N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
IN CLUSTERS NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N55W TO 24N62W
THROUGH 20N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF IT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. A COLD FRONT HAS
BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND NOW IS FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W
AND 64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 19N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 28N
BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CENTER...CURVING FROM 10N TO 25N
BETWEEN 21W AND 33W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
FROM 10N TO 23N EAST OF 21W AND MOVING OVER AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS 19N30W CYCLONIC CENTER
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
STILL CUTS ACROSS MAURITANIA NEAR 17N10W.

$$
MT


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