[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W 3N40W 1N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 15W-22W... AND FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO AT 23N98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 92W-95W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W AND N OF 22N.  15 KT NW WINDS ARE W OF
FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF FRONT HAS WARM
20-30 KT ESE SURFACE FLOW DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS EXCEPT IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N AND W OF 70W.  A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 85W.
W OF THE RIDGE AXIS SE FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.  E OF THE RIDGE
AXIS STRONG NWLY FLOW...SUBSIDENCE...AND A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS
IS NOTED.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING WLY FLOW AND MORE SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT... SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WRN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT WITH NO CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N38W TO 27N44W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NWLY FLOW IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W DUE TO A RIDGE.  A TROUGH IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 57W-66W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N43W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N30W.  TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-29W TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA





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