[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N25W 3N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 25W-31W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LIFTING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS AT THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CORE WINDS ARE NEAR 80 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA BASED ON THE 10/0600 UTC CIMSS DERIVED UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
COVERING THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1035
MB CENTER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W AND ANOTHER ONE IS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THESE TROUGHS. SURFACE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT COVER THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
TUE...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN QUIET BREEZY IN THE ERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF ON
TUESDAY. LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF MON
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND A
SFC TROUGH HAS LEFT OVER THE AREA. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA NEWD TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS
REMAINS ON TOP OF THIS FEATURE...SHEARING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THE NE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
ARE COMMON BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH HISPANIOLA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. SOME OF
THEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO
PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS BLOW FROM WESTERN CUBA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND BERMUDA. THE ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA AS STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
31N50W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA IS BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 22N32W TO NEAR 13N47W. THIS UPPER LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
29N-38W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 40W-60W.
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
WESTERN AFRICA. A 1038 MB SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED SE OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N23W REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS MAINLY E
OF 40W.

$$
GR





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