[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N25W 5N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 25W-31W.SCATTRED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOWLY LIFTING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNS FROM
EASTERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SUBTROPICAL
JET IS AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CORE WINDS ARE NEAR 80
KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BASED ON THE 10/0000 UTC CIMSS DERIVED UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH COVERING THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W AND ANOTHER ONE IS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT
COVER THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THESE TROUGHS.
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN QUIET BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE ERN GULF
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE GULF ON TUESDAY. LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE W GULF MON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
NICARAGUA NEWD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W INTO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ON TOP OF THIS
WEAKENING FRONT... SHEARING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEWD THROUGH HISPANIOLA
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THERE ARE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL PATCHES OF
MOISTURE DRIVEN BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONE OF THEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO PUERTO RICO. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE FRONT OR MORE LIKELY REMNANT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS BLOW FROM WESTERN CUBA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND BERMUDA. THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N54W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED
BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. IS BEHIND THE FRONT
GENERATING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THE
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER
HIGH LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N36W TO JUST E
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. THIS UPPER LOW IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
31N-35W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE DEEP TROPICS NEWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WESTERN
AFRICA. A 1041 MB SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE-E WINDS MAINLY E OF 40W.

$$
GR




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