[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 27W-33W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 33W-45W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S TEXAS.  10-20 KT ELY WINDS DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS
THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 20N79W IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO NW HONDURAS ALONG
24N80W 21N85W 16N88W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 82W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH DEPICTED BY WIND SHIFTS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM HISPANIOLA TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 20N70W 10N75W.  FURTHER
E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND
E OF 64W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 20N79W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN 70W-90W.  FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  EXPECT TO STATIONARY
FRONT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N51W 30N55W
29N65W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO W CUBA ALONG 26N74W
24N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A
1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N23W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-55W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-45W.  EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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