[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 6N20W 6N30W 5N40W TO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 44W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS LASTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SINCE LAST THURSDAY FINALLY IS OUT OF THE AREA. IT HAS SLOWED
DOWN ENOUGH DURING THE LAST FEW ANALYSES AND IS STATIONARY AT
THE MOMENT...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N70W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS AT
THIS TIME. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF HAS BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL
WITH JUST A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FEEL...AROUND A RIDGE THAT HAS
FLATTENED FROM ITS ORIGIN NEAR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
THE SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS IN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...LEAVING LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL RELAX MORE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ORIGINATES FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 18N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS
THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN A FEW DAYS AGO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW.
IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED DURING
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL
AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W TO 6N49W
TO 14N50W TO 19N52W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THIS TROUGH REALLY IS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY STILL IS IN THE AREA...
PASSING THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N70W...PART OF THE OVERALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHOSE ENDPOINT IS IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM 29N61W TO 25N69W...CURVING TO 17N75W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 26N63W 29N57W BEYOND 31N53W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N29W
TO 18N30W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N37W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N TO 33N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

$$
MT


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