[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N30W 3N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 6W-15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 26W-38W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1043 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N101W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
27N80W 23N88W 18N92W.  A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE FRONT.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT TO 28N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REPORTED OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO NW OF FRONT.  GALE FORCE NLY WINDS ARE ALSO OVER
THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 94W.  NLY 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 20N83W IS PRODUCING
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE ERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 22N60W 8N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE THE SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 20N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN 70W-100W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE CONVECTION E OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N75W 27N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK 1018 MB
LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N52W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N
BETWEEN 52W-70W.  NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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