[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 6N20W 5N30W 3N40W 2N50W 3N53W IN SOUTHERN SURINAME.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH HAS
BEEN IN A BAND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE LAST 5 TO 6 HOURS. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 31N78W...CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR 21N81W AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N88W
TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
BREAKS UP AT 19N94W AND IT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N97W
CURVING TO 20N101W 23N101W 24N101W 27N104W. THE CURRENT GULF
OF MEXICO WIND FORECAST INCLUDES A STORM WARNING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. A STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN ROUGHLY DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N61W BRINGS CYCLONIC
FLOW AS FAR WEST AS 75W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 15N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS
EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS LIKELY
THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA...AND THE 25N59W 9N61W TROUGH ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE
TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FASTER WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARE GENERATING HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ELSEWHERE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 19N61W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W
AND 15N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. OTHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND
59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N59W 16N61W 9N61W. A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS MARKS THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N51W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N44W TO 27N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 24N55W 25N36W
16N43W 10N55W 24N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N21W TO 13N47W.

$$
MT





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