[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N9W 5N30W 6N48W 5N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W
AND 44W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO AFRICA EAST OF 10W...FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN
CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND. A PART OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HOVERING OVER FLORIDA HAS BECOME WARM...
BRINGING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE WARM FRONT NOW GOES FROM 30N79W TO 30N83W TO 26N85W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
26N85W TO 22N90W TO 20N93W. ANOTHER SHOT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MEANING THAT THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INCLUDES A DEVELOPING GALE.
A DEVELOPING STORM IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...ON TOP OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N58W BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST AS
70W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N64W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 13N69W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE DRY AIR EVEN HAS MOVED OVER NICARAGUA
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND ALL THE EASTERN ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SWATH
OF 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND 80W. LARGE SURF FROM THIS TRADE SWELL EVENT CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GREATER/LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 20N58W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N64W
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 13N69W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N54W 13N56W 8N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N
TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N43W 23N48W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH. A RIDGE IS
ALONG 30N36W 22N39W 10N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1036 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N28W TO 35N41W...THROUGH 29N72W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.

$$
MT




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