[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 5N25W 4N32W 5N43W 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND
41W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 30W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN
CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND BEYOND. A STATIONARY
FRONT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N78W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W TO 24N87W AND 20N92W. ANOTHER SHOT OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MEANING THAT THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA INCLUDES A DEVELOPING GALE. A DEVELOPING
STORM IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...ON TOP OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N57W BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST AS
70W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N64W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 13N69W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE DRY AIR EVEN HAS MOVED OVER NICARAGUA
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND ALL THE EASTERN ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SWATH
OF 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND 80W. LARGE SURF FROM THIS TRADE SWELL EVENT CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GREATER/LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 20N57W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N64W
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 13N69W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N51W 13N54W 7N55W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N42W 22N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EAST OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH. A RIDGE IS ALONG
30N36W 22N39W 10N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N29W TO 36N39W 35N45W...THROUGH 33N56W
TO 30N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.

$$
MT




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