[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST AT AROUND
10 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEHIND
THIS WAVE. CONVECTION/SHOWERS ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
LIES ALONG 60W WITH SOME TURNING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
57W-61W. SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
ALONG 10N...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER THAT AREA.
THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO
LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT TROUGH MONDAY
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. A WIND SURGE IS FOLLOWING THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N30W 10N41 10N58W. THERE
ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION. ONE IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W LIKELY RELATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
WILL BE ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC MAP. THE DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW YESTERDAY TO THE SE TODAY. THE SECOND
CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MENTIONED ABOVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SENEGAL IN W AFRICA AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
56W-58W BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG WESTERN CUBA ALONG
82/83W. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA FROM AN
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S.. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST
OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWARD TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE
DOMINATES FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL
CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS IS OVER WESTERN CUBA
ALONG 82/83W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA...
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W. AN UPPER LOW
NOW LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN.
WHILE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND ELONGATED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N33W
OR ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AT AROUND 9 KT AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
75W. AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 19N-22W BETWEEN 67W-71W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 35W-50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO 25N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N W OF 38W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 23N18W TO NEAR 22N30W AND COVERS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N62W.

$$
GR



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