[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N32W
DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE LAST FEW SURFACE MAP ANALYSES HAVE
SHOWN A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW
CENTER. THE 07/0600 UTC MAP SHOWS A WAVE ALONG 36W. THE THINKING
NOW IS THAT A WAVE REALLY MAY NOT EXIST. WE JUST ARE DEALING
WITH THE SITUATION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH STRETCHES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N28W 6N34W 5N41W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 13N56W 8N55W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 270 NM MORE TO
THE EAST THAN ONE NORMALLY MAY BELIEVE THE WAVE TO BE BASED ON
FORWARD SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION WAS ADJUSTED
MORE TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO FIT WITH THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN INTERESTING SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
EXISTS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N58W 13N56W 7N54W.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N16W 9N24W 8N34W 8N39W 9N47W 10N54W 9N57W 9N62W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS EXIST FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 17W AND
19W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N109W JUST NORTHEAST OF CIUDAD OBREGON IN MEXICO
ALONG THE MEXICO WEST COAST TO 19N103W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFFSHORE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
90W AND 95W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HELPING TO START
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 24N AND ARE
BETWEEN 94W AND THE MEXICO COAST. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS FROM
THE 1014 MB T.D. CHRIS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WITH IT SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS IS MOVING FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY NOTHING BUT
DRY AIR NEAR 15N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN GENERAL
IS SOUTH OF 18N. LOW CLOUDS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
HINT AT SOME FORM OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 20N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 26N68W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING ITS WAY FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE 26N68W LOW CENTER. THE RIDGE THEN IS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...BEFORE CURVING BEYOND GEORGIA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 34N39W LOW CENTER TO
28N41W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 25N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 33N38W
TO 25N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 34N38W
29N40W 25N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO 23N35W.
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 28N63W. A RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
BORDER.

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net