[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 2N26W 2N30W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W...TO
1S53W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
3N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N18W 4N25W 3N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST
OF BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 30W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS ON THE N/NW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ONLY ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
SURFACE S/SW FLOW WARMED THE TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...IN FACT OVER 100 DEGREE F TEMPS WERE FOUND IN PARTS OF
MEXICO AND TEXAS YESTERDAY. FAIR AND WARM/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE CAROLINAS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT AND BE MAINLY IN THE ATLC.
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. THE GFS 24-HOUR POSITION DRAPES THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEREAFTER THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO SAG A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGH AND THURSDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N81W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ON THE RETURN FLOW OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM
THE EPAC ACROSS PANAMA AND NICARAGUA. THIS MOISTURE DRIES UP
VERY QUICKLY AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE...
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...NAMELY FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 50W-73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER COLUMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. WEAK SFC RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE
TRADES FAIRLY LIGHT. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THRU THU UNTIL
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC HIGH DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA.

WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED SOUTH  OF THE W/CNTRL ATLANTIC
WITH A DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N45W TO 22N50W TO 20N54W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS EAST OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG 20N44W BEYOND
32N29W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N42W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NEWD TO 22N28W. PLENTY OF
DRY/STABLE AIR LIES FROM 10N-20N EAST OF 35W. SAHARAN DUST WAS
WIDESPREAD EAST OF 30W BETWEEN 10N-20N WITH YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. THE SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND BUILD WESTWARD THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$
MT


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