[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 30W...AND WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS ON THE N/NW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ONLY ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
SURFACE S/SW FLOW WARMED THE TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...IN FACT OVER 100 DEGREE F TEMPS WERE FOUND IN PARTS OF
MEXICO AND TEXAS YESTERDAY. FAIR AND WARM/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE CAROLINAS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT AND BE MAINLY IN THE ATLC.
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. THE GFS 24-HOUR POSITION DRAPES THE FRONT NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEREAFTER THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO SAG A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGH AND THURSDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N81W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ON THE RETURN FLOW OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM
THE EPAC ACROSS PANAMA AND NICARAGUA. THIS MOISTURE DRIES UP
VERY QUICKLY AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE...
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...NAMELY FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 50W-73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER COLUMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. WEAK SFC RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE
TRADES FAIRLY LIGHT. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THRU THU UNTIL
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC HIGH DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA.

WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED SOUTH  OF THE W/CNTRL ATLANTIC
WITH A DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES 32N40W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N47W...AND CONTINUES TO
19N54W. GFS/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
LINGER FOR ANOTHER

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W NORTH OF 26N
PRODUCING ONLY A LITTLE ABOUT IT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N42W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NEWD TO
22N28W. PLENTY OF DRY/STABLE AIR LIES FROM 10N-20N EAST OF 35W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W. SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHES
ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 38N21W.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS SPILLING EWD W OF 34W N OF 22N ASSOCIATED WITH THE CNTRL
ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SAHARAN DUST IS WIDESPREAD E OF 30W BETWEEN 10N-20N. THE SFC
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE E ATLC AND BUILD
WWD THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE RETREATING TO THE N BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

$$
MT


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