[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N8W 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W 2N44W 1S47W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 9W AND 12W OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N27W 3N31W 3N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...AND FROM 1S TO 8N BETWEEN
40W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE THANKS
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ONE LINE OF
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG 89W NORTH OF
24N. ANOTHER SUCH LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
IS ALONG 94/96W NORTH OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N66W TO 29N73W TO
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N86W...TO 25N94W AND 23N98W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AT 72 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY REACH
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN APPROACHING
MASS OF DRY AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL U.S.A HELPED TO
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...MORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER AND TROUGH WHICH WERE PERSISTENT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W ONLY 48
HOURS AGO. THE REMNANT OF THAT TROUGH IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED
EITHER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OR CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA FROM 15/0300 UTC. AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM
SUBSIDENCE COVERS PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND
92W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CUT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM NICARAGUA AND SOUTH OF THERE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND EXIT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO
COME FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THEY CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY
IN ACCORD WITH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE ALONG 10N26W 11N42W
13N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 22N65W...250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO...TO JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES JUST NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
12N69W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 10N50W.
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE QUITE DRY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF
20N WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 20W WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION. ONLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE FOUND.

$$
MT




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