[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 24W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS...THANKS TO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 29N-87W...
KEEPING THE WEATHER QUITE NICE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING
NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MAY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
IN STORE FOR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SW WIND FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
21N66W...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS NEAR 24N-63W. THESE LOWS
ARE   ATTACHED TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NEWD TO
29N52W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED
NORTH OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N63W SSW BETWEEN BONAIRE AND CURACAO. THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS. FARTHER S IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS
SITTING JUST SSW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N79W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NW
TO 19N87W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREAS FROM HONDURAS NW THRU BELIZE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED
OVER PARTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ACCORDING TO THE
MODELS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR
10N-50W. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE QUITE DRY IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF 20N WITH LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER TROUGH
CONTROLS THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO JUST
PAST THE CAPE VERDES.  PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NE
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 20W THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS QUITE LIMITED
AND NEAR 30N10W. ONLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE IN THE REGION. A
SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NEAR 39W SOUTH OF 15N.

$$
GR



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