[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1S45W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM TO
THE N OF THE AXIS W OF 21W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS
E OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC
ACROSS MEXICO THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS ON
THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL
GULF. THERE IS AN AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT
THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE IS THINNING AND DRIFTING SWD OUT OF THE
AREA. AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE MS/LA
COASTLINE NEAR 29N89W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION N OF 25N. A FEW WEAK SMALL SHOWERS ARE MOVING SWWD ACROSS
THE FL KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EWD AND
WILL BE LOCATED E OF THE AREA BY SUN ALLOWING S/SW RETURN FLOW
TO DEVELOP...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE N GULF. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THRU THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STUCK ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW
CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 32N72W TO THE NEAR JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A 1008 MB SFC LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING N
OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW SITS ON A
COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SFC
TROUGH DRAPES SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
15N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SFC FORCING FROM THE LOW AND
THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A WIDE SHIELD OF RAIN FROM 20N-29N
BETWEEN 56W-70W. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED 150 NM OR SO TO THE
EAST OF WHERE IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SSWLY FLOW
AROUND AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DRAWING MOISTURE
NWD FROM S AMERICA AND MOVING IT INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE N OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS STRONGEST. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND WITH A ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL NEWARD TODAY AND DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE
TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 89W IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 19N.
TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAK SFC
PRES GRAD AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU SAT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC UNDER MID-UPPER
RIDGING. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N50W TO BEYOND 32N53W. SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC/NW CARIBBEAN IS SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS N OF 23N W OF 50W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF
20N. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. AN 80-100 KT SWLY JET ORIGINATES TO
THE S OF THE UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS TO PORTUGAL. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF
THE JET AXIS. A PATCH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE
AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING ENEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER W AFRICA WITH
PLENTY OF DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIMITING LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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