[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W 1S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND
100 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER LIBERIA IN AFRICA AND OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
EPAC AND COVERS MUCH OF MEXICO AND THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF MEXICO AND THE GULF SOUTH OF 26N. DRIER AIR IS FOUND
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 26N. EAST OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. AND CUBA TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
AREA. NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE S OVER THE N GULF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES E SAT THROUGH TUE...SLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND CUBA TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AT MID LEVELS. SLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH
IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER COLOMBIA
AND PARTS OF VENEZUELA AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HUMID AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N70W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N-54W THEN CONTINUES SW TO
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER. A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 20-30N BETWEEN 55W-70W. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NWD FROM VENEZUELA Y COLOMBIA INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG NELY FLOW IS STILL BLOWING JUST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD WHILE SLIGHTLY DEEPENS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTROLS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 27-28W. A
80-100 KT SWLY JET RUNS SE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NEWD FROM
23N-27W TO 31N-18W AND BEYOND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A MIDDLE/UPPER RIDGE
COVERS W AFRICA...WITH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 19N AND THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N25.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

$$
GR


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