[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
28W-31W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY RETURN
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  WARM FAIR WEATHER IS
NOTED.  A DRY LINE IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ALONG 33N94W 26N99W
MOVING SE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER N
OVER TEXAS FROM 34N98W TO BEYOND 34N103W MOVING S.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  SWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  A PATCH OF MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD N OF 21N.  EXPECT THE
DRY LINE TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.  NLY WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY
LACK APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SATURDAY MORNING  BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND A SHARPENING UPPER PATTERN WILL
ALLOW INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WLY FLOW.  A BAND OF
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT MORE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR BERMUDA AT 31N62W.  ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W.  THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 28N30W 27N35W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF FRONT.  AFRICAN DUST IS FAINTLY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY S OF 15N AND E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W.
CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  DYNAMICS/LIFT E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 50W N OF 20N.  OVER
THE E ATLANTIC...A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS N OF 15N E OF 35W
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA



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