[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1310N13W 4N22W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
18W-23W AND FROM 43W-52W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEWD OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE E COAST OF THE U.S.
THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BEING PUSHED EWD BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER ALL BUT THE NW GULF WHERE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACCOMPANY A 60-90 KT JET ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD OVER THE E U.S. DURING THE
NEXT 2 DAYS WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NW GULF EARLY SAT.  THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY LACK APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EARLY SAT BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
AND A SHARPENING UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW INCREASING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY DRY AS POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES AND
ASSOCIATED STABLE AIR PUSHES SWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEWD OVER FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH FURTHER E OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A 60-10 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEWD OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACCOMPANIES THE JET COVERING MUCH OF THE SE CARIBBEAN
AND ALL OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS
GENERALLY N OF 15N E OF 70W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NEWD PRODUCING A MORE CONFLUENT/STABLE PATTERN ALOFT BY LATE
SAT.

ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PUSHED OFF THE E COAST OF THE
U.S. DURING THE LAST 24 HOUR AND NOW LIES OVER THE W ATLC FROM
FLORIDA NEWD IN BETWEEN THE E COAST OF THE U.S. AND BERMUDA.
UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE MAINTAINING
GENERALLY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. SHIFTING
E...A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N55W SWD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. CONFLUENT FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE W ATLC TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS.  DYNAMICS/LIFT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 50W N OF 20N. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED BETWEEN 40W-50W TOMORROW.  OVER THE E
ATLANTIC...A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS N OF 15N E OF 35W.  THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...NOW WEAKENING...EXTENDS FROM 32N23W TO
27N33W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
BOUNDARY.  FINALLY...SOME AFRICAN DUST IS FAINTLY VISIBLE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 15N AND E OF 50W.

$$
RHOME


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