[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 301529
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... EVEN THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER... ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS.

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS HAS WEAKNED AND BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net