[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

W CARIBBEAN 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N81.5W DRIFTING
W. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20.5N BETWEEN
73.5W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN MOST 1010 MB LOW REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 11N34W. BROAD
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
10.5N34.5W-13N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE 13N32W-13.5N27W.

WESTERN MOST 1010 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N56W SE TO 7N49W AND DRIFTING W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 14N-18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS IN THE LOW CLOUDS N OF
PUERTO RICO. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N19W 11N32W 9N38W 12N49W 10N62W.
LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 15W-40W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-14N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER S TEXAS COVERS THE AREA
ADVECTING VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SOUTHWARD W OF 82W. CARIBBEAN FLOW IS
GIVING S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PLENTY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
DRIFTING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF
THE REGION IS MOVING E OFF THE COAST OF THE NE UNITED STATES
TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS S GEORGIA THEN CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA CONTINUING WSW INTO TEXAS JUST N OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. A WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 26N91W DRIFTING SSW.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COVERS ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN. SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS IN THIS
AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB LOW AND
GENERATING BROAD AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16.5N BETWEEN
81.5W-87.5W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREA OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND
A SMALLER AREA FROM 12N-14.5N BETWEEN 73W-76W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
12N INLAND OVER VENEZUELA W OF TRINIDAD TO 64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOT THE NE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 32N71W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA. THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NE THROUGH HAITI TO BEYOND 32N65W.
DIFFLUENCE AND THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 78W AND SPREADING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS S AND IN THE W ATLC NE WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 32N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 27N58W TO A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N61W INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS AND THE FAR E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 9N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
E OF THIS TROUGH FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N31W WITH A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO 25N50W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N28W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO JUST S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N24W. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ARE
RATHER LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 22W-27W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS E OF 70W
TO OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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