[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 180 NM NORTHEAST OF HONDURAS MOVING
NORTHWEST 5 KT.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 78W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
12N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
13N59W DRIFTING WEST.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BENEATH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
20N60W.  INFRA RED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT DEPICT THE
TROPICAL WAVE SURFACE FEATURES VERY WELL.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N17W 12N30W 10N40W 13N50W 9N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-29W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TINY 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS IS NEAR 29N89W DRIFTING SW.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N92W.  A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG 32N86W 29N75W TO BEYOND 28N100W MOVING ESE.
THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS.
FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-19N
BETWEEN 91W-94W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W.  EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SPECIAL FEATURE IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 66W-74W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS W OF 70W...AND IS ENHANCING
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.  NORTHERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 67W-71W.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W IS ALSO PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 53W-56W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N40W ENHANCING
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 26N27W.  AGAIN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
22W-28W.  FINALLY... A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND
OVER W AFRICA CENTERED NEAR 15N5W.

$$
FORMOSA


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