[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED AROUND
THE WAVE AXIS.  THE EXACT LOCATION OF A LOW CENTERED IS NO
LONGER DEFINITIVE.  ONE POSSIBLE LOCATION IS NEAR 13N37W.  A
LARGE  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 17N48W IS
PRODUCING SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING SEVERELY HAMPERED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 31W-34W.

EAST CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 13N37W 10N25W 12N32W 6N50W 6N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 10W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 22W-28W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 44W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 90W-95W MOVING NW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 32N84W 20N97W.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS.  EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...EXPECT A
SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION OVER THE NE
GULF...S OF THE REMNANTS OF RITA.  THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALSO HAS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WITHIN  24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC W OF 70W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  EASTERLY FLOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF
INLAND COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
74W-76W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.  A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
23N58W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE E CARIBBEAN AND
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W.  BOTH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE ADVECTING
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE ENTIRE
SEA S OF 18N TO HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC TO HAVE CONTINUED
FAIR WEATHER.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N56W DRIFTING
S.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N60W 24N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 52W-57W.
A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N22W.
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E OF
50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 17N48W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
20N25W DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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