[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 232039
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS
USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR
THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD
MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 28.2N  92.6W   110 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 29.2N  93.7W   105 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  94.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND


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