[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KEYW 191659 AAB
HLSEYW
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191830-

TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST...
...A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY
TO KEY LARGO IS TO COMMENCE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR
THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 397 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 994 MB...OR 29.35 INCHES
OF MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY KEY WEST. A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF THE UPPER
KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY LARGO WILL COMMENCE AT 300 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION
ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS
BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL
HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE STORM. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND
WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE
PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS
WILL BE CLOSING TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY
AND TUESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM
MONDAY. GREYHOUND REPORTS EXCELLENT AVAILABILITY OF SEATS ON SERVICE
OUT OF KEY WEST AND THE REMAINING KEYS. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT
1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE
ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF
SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN
ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON.
THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM
PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE
HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND
1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM
TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE
PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES WILL BE TOPPLED.
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER
KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET
BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30
FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE
YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE
CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP IMMEDIATELY. THE BRIDGES WILL BE
LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER THIS MORNING. IF YOU PLAN FOR
YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO
ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS
THAT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. MOST
ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST AS
DANGEROUS AS DURING HURRICANE KATRINA.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS 87 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 84 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 34 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND
35 PERCENT AT KEY WEST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER
IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU
MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

$$
BS

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