[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 191559
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-192200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1158 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS RAISED FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...
MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND
GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION
UPDATED COUNTY INFORMATION
UPDATED RAINFALL INFORMATION

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE
WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS.

PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY.

MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE
SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS.

COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MILES AN
HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES NEAR FLORIDA BAY SHOULD ENACT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN
MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY.
EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FREQUENT
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT
FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR
WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. SHOULD RITA MAKE ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH
CONDITIONS WOULD BE WORSE THAN DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY.

MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ANNOUNCE MANDATORY EVACUATION
FOR MOBILE HOMES TODAY AND AT LEAST A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION
FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL
NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AND THESE WILL ALSO BE ANNOUNCED LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR
FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE AND FLAMINGO FACILITY WILL CLOSE AT NOON
TODAY. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET.
BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSING THIS MORNING INCLUDING ELLIOTT KEY.

BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL HAVE A PRESS CONFERENCE AT NOON TODAY TO
RECOMMEND EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
NEEDS SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCATIONS WILL BE
ANNOUNCED AT THAT PRESS CONFERENCE. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY
WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. BROWARD SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT WILL BE CLOSED
TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE
TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH
THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST
STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT
KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY
BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. MANY COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE
COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES.
ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH
EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF
BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL
TIDES ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO
ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73
MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS HURRICANE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE COUNTY...THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN
LARGE TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER
OUTAGES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS IN MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND SHUTTERS ARE STRONGLY RECOMMENDED IN BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER THAN 40 MPH RANGES FROM AROUND 80
PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...75 PERCENT IN MIAMI...65 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND
53 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER THAN 58
MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...31 PERCENT IN MIAMI...20 PERCENT IN
FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 11 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH.

ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...
74 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF
WINDS GREATER THAN 58 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...
33 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 25 PERCENT IN NAPLES.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE
SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64
KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA
LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH
TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT
GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL
CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD
AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL
DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB
SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

$$

PFOST

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