[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KEYW 181857 CCA
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-182200-

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...CORRECTED STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS HEADER...

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM POSITION INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STROM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN QUANTIFIED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 550
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 650 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WAS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING.

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MONROE COUNTY HAS ENTERED A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED FULLY AT 700 AM MONDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS
AND NON-RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST STARTING AT
NOON TODAY.

RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE KEYS MUST LEAVE TODAY.

COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY.

TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED.

RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION.

RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY. SECURE
LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT.

MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUNTY
OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MUNICIPAL OFFICES MAY FOLLOW
SUIT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND
GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY.

IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON
JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN
YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE
HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS
TRAVELING ON THE WATER.

IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO
USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET
FROM A CATEGORY 1 STORM. THIS ACCORDS WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK.

OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS
POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE:
WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1031 AM AND 1045 PM MONDAY...
WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TUESDAY.
KEY WEST 1141 AM AND 1134 PM MONDAY...
KEY WEST 1230 PM TUESDAY AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE WILL BE GREATEST ON THE SOUTH SHORE. IN GENERAL A SLOWLY
MOVING STORM WILL PRODUCE LESS SURGE. A RAPIDLY MOVING STORM WILL
PRODUCE GREATER SURGE.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
WE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO
REFINE OUR ESTIMATES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL BE AVAILABLE
AROUND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

$$

DFM/JL/MR/MS/2.1



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