[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 140842
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 980
MB AND BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION. WINDS
COULD INCREASE A LITTLE MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY.

OPHELIA HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS...OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.
BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRIMARILY A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE
ONCE BACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. IT SHOULD BE AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE...MAINLY DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD WHEN
ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION.

NOAA BUOY 41013 JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA REPORTED GUSTS
TO 60 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 985.7 MB AT 08Z.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 33.2N  77.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 33.8N  77.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 34.7N  76.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  75.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  73.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  59.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/0600Z 48.0N  48.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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