[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 091441
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.6N  78.0W      33  X  1  X 34   CHARLESTON SC      5  4  3  4 16
31.0N  77.4W      18  3  1  2 24   MYRTLE BEACH SC    4  6  3  3 16
30.5N  77.5W      22  2  1  1 26   WILMINGTON NC      1  7  3  4 15
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  2  2   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  4  4  4 12
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  3  3   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  1  3  5  9
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  X  2  2   NORFOLK VA         X  X  2  4  6
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  4  4   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  3  3
MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  2  2   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  2  2
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2   KEY WEST FL        X  X  2  5  7
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  2  4  6   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  1  3  6 10
MYNN 251N 775W     X  1  3  4  8   FT MYERS FL        X  1  3  6 10
MYGF 266N 787W     3  5  3  4 15   VENICE FL          X  X  3  6  9
MARATHON FL        X  X  3  5  8   TAMPA FL           X  X  4  6 10
MIAMI FL           X  2  5  5 12   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  7  9
W PALM BEACH FL    1  4  5  4 14   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  6  6
FT PIERCE FL       2  5  5  4 16   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  5  5
COCOA BEACH FL     2  6  4  4 16   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  4  4
DAYTONA BEACH FL   5  3  4  4 16   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    1  2  5  5 13   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        1  3  4  5 13   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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