[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 071441
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND
VECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING
MARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE
WIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM.  IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A
TRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA
HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE
FROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM.  MARIA IS
BEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES
WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO
045/14.  MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN
THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/1500Z 36.0N  50.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 36.8N  49.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 38.2N  47.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 39.8N  45.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 41.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 46.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 51.5N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1200Z 58.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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