[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 071437
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.5N  80.0W      99  X  X  X 99   NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  2  2
29.8N  80.2W      70  X  X  X 70   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  2  2
30.0N  80.3W      58  X  X  X 58   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  4  5
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X  3  3   FT MYERS FL        X  1  1  5  7
MYGF 266N 787W     1  X  2  4  7   VENICE FL          1  1  1  5  8
MARATHON FL        X  X  X  2  2   TAMPA FL           5  2  2  4 13
MIAMI FL           X  X  1  4  5   CEDAR KEY FL       7  4  2  3 16
W PALM BEACH FL    2  1  1  4  8   ST MARKS FL        1  5  4  4 14
FT PIERCE FL      17  X  1  1 19   APALACHICOLA FL    X  3  3  5 11
COCOA BEACH FL    45  X  X  X 45   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  3  6 10
DAYTONA BEACH FL  40  X  X  X 40   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1  6  7
JACKSONVILLE FL   19  3  1  1 24   MOBILE AL          X  X  1  4  5
SAVANNAH GA        7  8  3  2 20   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      1  8  5  3 17   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  3  5  5 13   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC      X  1  3  6 10   GULF 29N 85W       X  2  2  5  9
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  2  5  7   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  4  5
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  4  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM THU TO  8PM THU
C FROM  8PM THU TO  8AM FRI
D FROM  8AM FRI TO  8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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