[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 03/2100 UTC IS NEAR 26.1N
54.8W ABOUT 760 MILES...1225 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 740 MILES...1190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA.  IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  MARIA IS BETTER ORGANIZED BOTH IN
THE CLOUD PATTERN AND CONVECTION.  MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
10 KT.  A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 43W-45W.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THERE IS SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 69W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N30W 12N43W 6N55W 6N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-19W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 24W-29W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A WEAK
1013 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 90W-97W.
IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...W
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
80W-83W...FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W...AND FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 88W-91W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W.  N-NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS.   IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N AND W OF 75W.  THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CUBA AND ALL
OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 31N65W...28N65W...
AND 26N71W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 66W-69W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
T.S. MARIA IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 50W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N72W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR
31N63W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER T.S. MARIA.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N5W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 25W.

$$
FORMOSA


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