[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
01/0300 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.2N
49.1W MOVING NNE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC. AN UPPER LOW IS W OF LEE AND
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE W SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM.
THUS...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

A BROAD 1009 MB TROPICAL ATLC SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
17N42W MOVING WNW 10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE W IS
PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 19N40W-22N45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 31/1800 UTC AND AT
01/0000 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 9N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS
AN ELONGATED E/W LOW WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL TO THE
W OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN THE ITCZ.

WEAK CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 80W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA
TO 12N BETWEEN 79W-81W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 9N29W 13N39W THEN ALONG
13N45W 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF AFRICA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE COAST FROM 12N-18N AND MOVING
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 59W TO 63W
INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF TRINIDAD. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 11N27W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 8N31W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 25W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER HIGH ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES
TO FUNNEL ATLC MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W GULF. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS RETREATED BACK OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO
COVERING THE INLAND AREA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLC IS STILL KEEPING THE LOW
LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE W GULF NEAR 24N94W PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND
ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT HAS
DEVELOPED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NE ACROSS E CUBA
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO OVER
HAITI AND CUBA W OF 71W TO THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO S OF
THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WHERE THE ITCZ CROSSES. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME ALL BUT THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ALONG E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
PUSH UPPER MOISTURE SW OVER THE W ATLC. MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW W OF T.D. LEE NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG 25N66W TO
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 62W-73W.
MID/UPPER HIGH CENTERED S OF THE ABOVE TROUGH NEAR 21N60W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WSW OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND N TO 29N55W. ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
22N55W-28N51W. NARROWING SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER
AIR IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
27N41W-23N47W-18N49W AND CONTINUING W WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SECOND BROADER UPPER HIGH CENTERED W OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N35W WITH FLOW COVERING THE AREA S
OF 28N E OF 42W. AT THE SURFACE...NARROWING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
32N31W.

$$
WALLACE




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