[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291824
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA AT 29/1800 UTC IS NEAR 13.9N 82.2W
OR ABOUT 56 NM/105 KM NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 87 NM/165 KM SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ALSO ABOUT 74 NM/135 KM
EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING WEST 4 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION ALSO SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE
NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND THE
EASTERN SHORELINE OF NICARAGUA. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY HAVE BEEN REACHING LAND FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AND NOW ARE IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND
IN EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH CENTER IS 450 TO 500 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BETA...IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
SPIRAL AWAY FROM BETA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT REALLY LOOKS GREAT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W IN THE WATERS
SOUTH OF MOSTLY HAITI AND A LITTLE BIT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SIMILAR NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE EASTERN WATERS AROUND JAMAICA AND EVEN REACHING
LAND IN EASTERN JAMAICA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT
THIS AREA OF WEATHER MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO HURRICANE BETA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 8N20W 5N30W 5N36W 10N42W 14N47W...8N49W 9N56W
10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
14W AND 31W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...IS PUSHING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD...ALONG 10N26W 12N19W ACROSS
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SYNOPTIC SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH THIS
TROUGH IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 94W. DRY AIR COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF WATERS ALSO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF WATERS INTO
INTERIOR MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. BETA IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...EAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS FOR BETA
TO MAKE ITS WAY TO LAND FINALLY...IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W...WITH ITS NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND
76W IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF MOSTLY HAITI AND A LITTLE BIT OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN THE EASTERN WATERS AND EASTERN
INTERIOR LAND AREAS OF JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS WAVE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO HURRICANE
BETA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RUNS FROM NEAR
THE EQUATOR TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO
13N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH CENTER IS 450 TO
500 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BETA...IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SPIRAL AWAY FROM BETA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A PLUME OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 150 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N78W AT THE CUBA COAST...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 28N72W...
BEYOND 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 60W TOWARD AFRICA. AN ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N69W TO 29N70W TO 26N73W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND
75W...AND MORE ISOLATED FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THE CLOUDINESS UNDER THE 32N66W
22N78W PLUME OF MOISTURE. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N22W TO 28N30W TO 26N40W TO 28N50W TO 30N53W. A TROUGH
IS JUST EAST OF THIS FRONT ALONG 32N19W 26N25W 22N31W. LINES OF
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 15W AND 53W...WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IN SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS. THIS FRONT MAY START
TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net