[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271759 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

AMENDED FOR 27/1800 UTC T.S. BETA POSITION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA AT 27/1800 UTC IS NEAR
11.6N 81.4W OR ABOUT 60 NM/115 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND AND ABOUT 140 NM/260 KM EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
BETA IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR BETA TO BECOME A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE COLOMBIA ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 15N TO
18N...INCLUDING IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF JAMAICA...BETWEEN 76W
AND 79W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 8N ALONG THE WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
FLOW AROUND A LOW CENTER NEAR 9N52W ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA
OF THIS WAVE FROM EAST TO WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALSO IS NEAR THE WAVE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME POSSIBLE REMAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N12W 8N20W 8N33W 11N37W 8N43W 7N59W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE NOT COUNTING THAT WHICH IS WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 53W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF 20N14W
16N20W 12N29W UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN CANADA
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...AS THE BASE SWINGS
FROM INTERIOR MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINED
UP IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 95W AND
THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTLINES. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERS THE GULF WATERS EAST
OF 86W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. BETA IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...EAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR BETA TO BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COLOMBIA ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W...WITH ITS SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG
73W/74W . SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
10N37W TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 9N52W TO 9N63W. A SURFACE
STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N70W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N76W...CUTTING ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 18N79W.
ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N63W 26N70W
25N74W 22N77W. A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
30N52W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N15W TO 28N20W TO 23N30W TO 20N38W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
GOES FROM 20N38W TO 19N43W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN
320 TO 420 NM EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 32N15W 28N20W 25N24W.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

$$
MT

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