[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 270245
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE
ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION.  HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION
OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL
WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN
CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE
WARNINGS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0300Z 11.1N  81.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N  82.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N  82.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.0N  83.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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