[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 250847
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE
EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS
SYMMETRIC.  THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO
THE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.  THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
ROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

THE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT
STRAIGHTFORWARD.  IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN
ANTICIPATED.  GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS
DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE
THE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A
SEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
THE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHOULD WILMA
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 34.8N  70.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 38.9N  64.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 43.0N  57.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 45.0N  51.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 46.0N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 46.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 47.0N  23.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/0600Z 55.0N  20.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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