[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 74.3W OR ABOUT 225 NM SSE
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AT 25/0300 UTC MOVING NE AT 41
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WILMA REMAINS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WILMA IS MOVING
FASTER ON THE E SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING
COLD AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 125 NM IN THE SE
SEMICIRCLE.

THE LAST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA WAS WRITTEN AT
24/2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF 5N FROM 17W-32W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF 11N FROM 40W TO THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 12.5N FROM 43W-50W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 55W
S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE FROM 52W-57W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG
88W/89W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER W NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 8N34W 10N48W 11N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 27W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E UNITED STATES INTO THE
GULF TO OVER S MEXICO TO 17N WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING
OVER THE W ATLC AND S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO
FORCING HURRICANE WILMA NE OUT OF THE REGION...LEAVING THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 92W INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG WINDS OF 20 KT ARE REPORTED
ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS N FLORIDA DROPPING
INTO THE 50'S DEG F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30'S AND 40'S FROM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE NORTHWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA OF W CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W AT 25/0300 UTC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 17N81W. RIDGE FROM BROAD UPPER HIGH IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE N VENEZUELA NEAR 8N66W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 14N FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER COLOMBIA. DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS AND TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADEWINDS MERGE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W
OF 76W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WILMA IS MOVING RAPIDLY NE OFF THE CAROLINAS COASTS TO THE E OF
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N77W ALONG 27N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N78W
AT 0300 UTC. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR W ATLC DRY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TO THE E OF WILMA IS A BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED
NEAR 27N63W COVERING THE ATLC W OF 45W. OVER THE E ATLC A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N E OF 45W. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W SW ALONG 26N30W THEN W TO 27N60W.
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA S OF A LINE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 20N30W TO NEAR 20N45W. CONVECTION OVER THE
ATL IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES.

$$
WALLACE


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