[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 231436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH BANDING
FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY HAS
BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE
WITHIN 75 N MI FROM THE POSITION GIVEN IN THE ADVISORY AND IS BASED
ON A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM HAITI. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
HISTORICALLY...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO
RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.
BECAUSE THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW
SHEAR...WE ARE SHOWING A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE WE DO NOT EXACTLY THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT ALPHA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED AND ALPHA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 19.2N  72.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  73.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N  74.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  73.5W    30 KT...ABSORBED BY WILMA
 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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