[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 231352
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION
UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS
UPDATED SURGE INFORMATION
UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS
UPDATED WIND EFFECTS
UPDATED COUNTY PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES.
WILMA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING
WILMA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF
WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD RUSH THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO
COMPLETION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41
INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF
NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT
TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ADDITIONAL EVACUATION ORDERS MAY BE ISSUED
TODAY AS THE FORECAST FOR WILMA BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS STRONGLY
URGE A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF
LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM TODAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES AND
LOW LYING AREAS IS IN EFFECT. SHELTERS OPEN AT NOON TODAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
WILL BEGIN AT NOON TODAY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. COUNTY GOVERNMENT
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND THE COUNTY URGES BUSINESSES IN
BROWARD TO CLOSE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR EMPLOYEES. A BRIDGE
LOCKDOWN WILL OCCUR AT 5 PM EDT.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN
SUB-STANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL BEGIN AT 1 PM EDT TODAY. SPECIAL
NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL
OPEN AT 1 PM EDT.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND
PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS
ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA AS A CATEGORY TWO OR
ONE HURRICANE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST SOMEWHERE IN
COLLIER COUNTY. A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 13 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL MID
MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL ACCESS
ROADS TO MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING
STATE ROADS 92...951...953 AND 29 AND LARGE PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL U.S. HIGHWAY 41. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LARGE PARTS OF NAPLES
ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL AND MARCO ISLAND IS
EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT CONCENTRATE ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF
THE CENTER BECAUSE THE ERROR INHERENT 24 HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL CAN
BE AS MUCH AS 70 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF COLLIER
COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR LOCATION IS
POSSIBLY PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...THE BEST ACTION IS TO
EVACUATE.

A STORM TIDE AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED
MID MORNING MONDAY IN THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL
PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FLAMINGO AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND UP TO 10 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE SABLE.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL CAN
BE EXPECTED MID MORNING MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PILE SOME WATER INTO
THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY CAUSING SOME FLOODING OF CAUSEWAYS AND
LOW LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME FROM MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEE
HOURS MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM TIDE OF 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL...WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS...IS
EXPECTED WITH WILMA MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TIDE WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK
EAST TO BELLE GLADE AND SOUTH BAY INCLUDING CLEWISTON AND MOORE
HAVEN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS OUTSIDE HOOVER
DIKE PROTECTION INCLUDING TORRY...KREAMER AND RITTA ISLANDS AND SOME
ACCESS ROADS. THE LAKE LEVEL ON SATURDAY WAS 15.58 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...GREATER
THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER COLLIER COUNTY THIS
EVENING...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...GREATER THAN 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY...REACHING METRO MIAMI-DADE AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
SHORTLY AFTER DAWN AND THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METRO AREAS MID
MORNING ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...GENERALLY A
FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN METRO PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD BY MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.

DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME
BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO LIKELY.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS MUST NOT DRIVE OR WALK AROUND
IN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. SEVERAL SOUTH FLORIDA
DEATHS OCCURRED IN KATRINA WHEN PEOPLE DECIDED TO WALK AROUND TO
WATCH TREES FALL IN STRONG WINDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND
SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 40 TO
55 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...IS FROM 10 TO 25
PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL REACH HURRICANE FORCE...64 KNOTS...IN THE GULF WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

 ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
SHOULD START SUBSIDING AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING MID
MORNING MONDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS WILMA RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION FOR THE PROTECTION
OF MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS. BE SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA
LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...
PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO
THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES WILL BE THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF WILMA. THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 12 NOON.

$$

PFOST

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